LAC SKIRMISHES - FURTHER DEVELOPMENTS

The border skirmishes in eastern Ladakh where India lost twenty of its braves including the CO of 16 Bihar and an undetermined number of casualties on the Chinese side, continues to be a matter of discussion in various forums. The full details though not available, has given rise to many speculations doing rounds as to what had happened on the night of 15th June. The GOI had been very guarded in its statement that there had been no transgression into Indian territory by PLA. Stopping short at that gives rise to lots of speculation of IA crossing the LAC into Chinese territory and pay the PLA in its own coin. The reported exchange of personnel after two days confirms this suspicion.  This apart, one of the news channel pieced together a story, from the interviews with injured soldiers being treated at Leh hospital, giving details about the attack on the night of 15th June. From the day one of the skirmishes, the spokesman of the foreign ministry of China had been talking about the transgression of IA into their territory across LAC.

China had been busy building roads on its side of the LAC and completed a rail link to Lhasa from Xining in Qinghai province. Xining is already well connected with Beijing, Shanghai and other cities of China.  It had been objecting to the infrastructure development on the Indian side of the LAC from early 1950s.  The change in the party of the government of India in 2014 made the difference to the increased infrastructure development in the border area. 

The mountainous region of eastern Ladakh in the Himalayan ranges has the river Galwan running to meet the river Shyok near the LAC and there are mountain projections into the river in many places which are referred to as fingers.  Of the total about 16 and odd such fingers, IA had been patrolling the areas from finger 1 to finger 8 and it was moving about freely till the finger 14. Suddenly the PLA had put up bunkers, temporary structures and stationed its troops along the finger from their side till finger 8 and prohibited the patrolling till finger 14.    

Be that as it may, many in the country are talking about the strength of one army against the other and a few ascribe to the superiority of the PLA in terms of fire power and technological advancement.  While we should not under-estimate the enemy, one thing that is to be kept in mind is that the enemy is now cultivating the nations surrounding India by offering them cheap money for their infrastructure development, meeting disasters etc.  Nepal is already in the basket of China and now China is eyeing Bangladesh and Bhutan. China in the last three decades of its pseudo capitalism had built up a very big war chest of reserves and had steadfastly refused to devalue its currency despite much pressure from US and the world bodies. Though the present administration tried to cultivate better relationship with the neighbors since 2014, the past experience of dealing with egoistic leaders from India, the big brother attitude of India and the promise of cheap money from China is driving India's neighbors into the net of China. The lesson from the Sri Lankan example is not seen learnt by the leaders of these countries.  The enemy is now surrounding India with a string of pearls (as it is coined in a TV news channel).  

In a few years one may read in the paper that like in 1950 invasion of Tibet, China had invaded Nepal and made that into a province (Autonomous region, to boot) of its own. Bhutan also is not far off from their lookout.   The Chinese plan is to acquire control and possession over the five fingers, viz, Ladakh, Nepal, Bhutan, Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh, of the Tibetan Plateau. It has started with the Aksai Chin area of Ladakh captured by China in the 1962 war with India.  Now it wants the entire Ladakh area and the present military buildup along the Galwan valley is in continuation of this plan. That is one of the reasons for their opposition to the constitutional amendment in India in relation to J&K and bifurcating the state into two UTs. Supporting the communist party of Nepal and weaning it away from India is an action that is more in tune with their plans.  Bhutan is likely the next target. China did not approve of the merger of the independent Sikkim nation into a state of India through a referendum and resolution in their national assembly. China is contesting the entire area under the control of India in Arunachal Pradesh.  

India and its rulers should not let the guard down even for a moment when it comes to China.  The talk for de-escalation that had been agreed upon at the military commanders' level will not be adhered to by China.  There are already reports of China strengthening its territory along the Galwan river banks with bunkers, tents, concrete buildings, artillery etc. Though in the limited skirmish with the PLA, in a hand to hand scuffle, IA might have got an upper hand. The roads, railway to Lhasa and other works that are underway in the Chinese territory across LAC are much more easier for the enemy to shift their army from the Tibetan plateau to the river front or any other theater immediately. The PLA has been conducting military exercise on the Tibetan plateau not very far from the LAC with India.

The recent revelation about the main opposition party entering into an MOU with the Chinese Communist Party in 2008 and the Embassy of China donating a whopping USD 300,000/- (Approx INR 2.25 crores) in 2005 are making every citizen suspecting the intent of the leaders of the main opposition party in demanding full disclosures of the attack on the night of June 15th.  Added to this, the leaders of this party had not so far condemned China for the attack on the patrolling party and killing the CO and two other men which escalated the skirmish on the night of 15th June leading to more IA personnel killed in action.  

China seems to have taken leaves out of Chanakya's famed book Artha Shastra and their own book Art of War by Sun Tzu.  It is high time, India reset the thinking about China and reorient its priorities on trade, commerce and other economic factors leading to a huge trade deficit.  India, also has to reorient its military in terms of the long border with China.   India has to be extremely careful in these difficult times and meet the enemy forcefully. 

China is known to go back on its words is a well documented and well known fact since its becoming a communist nation in late 1940s. China's ambition and its leaders' insatiable thirst for land has to be understood in its proper perspective and India needs to carefully assess the entire gamut of options and take the one appropriate to the situation that is developing now.