LAC - RECENT SKIRMISHES - WHAT INDIA MUST DO
The de-escalation process that was agreed upon between India and China at top military levels reportedly not percolating down to the operational units is the reason for the skirmishes, body blows and death of a commanding officer and few men on the Indian side and undetermined number of casualties on the Chinese side, reports one of the TV channels. The death of personnel now in 2020 after 1975 has given rise to a jingoistic call of boycott of Chinese products from many especially in the social media. There are many ex military officers and citizens who talk of India is not the India of 1960s vintage and the present leadership is far removed from the one that was totally clueless in the 1962 limited war with China forgetting for a moment that China has gone way ahead of India in the last sixty years. Let us take an objective look at the issues and what the country must do to stand up to the bullying China.
China had been cultivating all the nations surrounding India with its BRI and loans for their infrastructure projects. The countries find themselves in deep waters after the project is completed and when the loan installments and interest are due for repayment. Myanmar and Vietnam have reportedly refused any loans from China as the local economists warned the rulers about the risk of high interest rates and one sided agreements. Sri Lanka paid the price for the Chinese assistance by not able to pay the interest on the loan for the Humbantota port development by handing over the same to China. Pakistan is slowly slipping into this category of nations, where the CPEC and the proposed dam building for hydro electric power generation in the Gilgit Baltistan area of POK with huge debts which surpass more than 250 to 300% of its GDP. The days are not far off when one may read that China has taken over POK area of Gilgit and Baltistan in lieu of the payment of interest and installments due to it by Pakistan. In domestic politics of Nepal, the intrusion of China is very evident in that the warring factions of Nepal Communist party have come together under the present PM K P Sharma Oli at the insistence of China. Nepal had been quite for a long time almost a decade when the road construction in the Himalayan ranges adjoining the western borders of Nepal with India in Utharakhand, started under UPA. This was a traditional merchant route from Uttarkhand in India (Kumaon) to Burang (Thalakot) in Tibet, which was used by the pilgrims for their travel to Kailash Manasarovar. When the completed road was inaugurated by the defense minister in early May this year, this got the goat of Nepal and they immediately protested saying that the road had been constructed in their sovereign territory. They went to the extent of modifying their territorial map including the disputed territories of Kalapani and Lipulekh in their map thereby claiming that India constructed road in their territory. The unilateral action of Nepal in getting the constitutional amendment approved by their national parliament with a two third majority shows that the actions were taken at the behest of some one else. The entire saga of this needs to be discussed in a separate write up.
China had been flexing its muscles in the disputed areas of South and East China Sea and it has already annexed a disputed island in the south China sea making it a part of a province in their mainland. Now China is eyeing the disputed territory of Ladakh (refer to earlier blog for historical reasons) and Arunachal Pradesh needling India in the process. Their unilateral transgression of the LAC in the eastern Ladakh where they had already usurped an area of around 37000 Sq KM and named it Aksai Chin in 1962 and building a road from Tibet to Xinjiang is a provocation to see how India reacts.
The frequent meetings at political level and also military level since the last skirmish in 1975 and various agreements had been thrown to wind by China by increasing its military presence in eastern Ladakh in Galwan Valley. The stand off at Doklam in 2017 and consequent return to status-quo-ante had been a block in the China's ambition to link its various provinces in the Himalayan region with a network of roads for easy access and to move its military assets very easily. In eastern Ladakh, where China was angling for annexation of larger area to come under the Aksai Chin and build roads along the Pongsong Tso lake to reach Aksai Chin from Tibet is now thwarted by the stand off between the two countries. India building a road connecting Dabruk with DBO where an unused airfield had been activated earlier is viewed as a big threat to China by its military. Now with the road from Uttarakhand to the border of Tibet on the western border of Nepal via Lipulekh and Kalapani is also viewed seriously by China.
Since 1990, Chinese military had undergone a big make over with many state of the art military machines locally made and imported; they also had been building up their economic might by relaxing many labour norms which attracted many global companies to set up their manufacturing facilities in China. This not only ramped up China's GDP but it also facilitated the country to start manufacturing from pin to plane. Today China is the only country in Asia to manufacture passenger aircraft other than European consortium and Boeing. Even some of the smaller ones in other developed nations have shut shop. China is able to manufacture military aircraft and their own aircraft carriers. With all these developments, the country has amassed a huge foreign exchange reserve in excess of a few trillion dollars. Today, there is not a single product that is manufactured anywhere in the world which does not have a component made in China. Even some of the renowned companies' products have components made in China. Though India is a nuclear power since 1998, China has amassed more number of nuclear warheads compared to India and it is staunchly objecting inclusion of India into the nuclear suppliers' group.
The influence of China extends beyond trade and commerce. They have a great influence in most of the international bodies like UNO, WHO, WTO, UNHRC etc. Their deep pockets help them wield extraordinary influence in these global bodies and no country can stand up to China in these global bodies. It will take the might of all the nations put together to take on China in any or all of these global bodies. In that background, thinking that India can boycott the Chinese products is a distant dream. The trade balance is tilted in favour of China with more exports from than to China. China is able to take on a developed nation like Australia on its own terms threatening it with stoppage of all imports from that country. It may not be very difficult to stop all the imports from India without even talking about it and in these trying times of a pandemic it will be an added burden on the ex-checker.
India on its part has to increase its military power to match that of China immediately within the next twelve to twenty four months. One of the first actions that India has to put in place is to get the delivery of the aircraft from France which is now getting delayed thanks to the pandemic and consequent lock down. The manufacturing of required machinery from armaments to LMGs, tanks, field guns locally with private players' participation has to be improved with more emphasis on additional funds allocation and increased impetus. The manufacturing of fighter aircraft domestically in the country has to be seriously thought about with the available expertise in the public sector to be expanded with inclusion of private sector. These actions on the manufacturing of arms and ammunition and improving the military strength will be posing a deterrent to the enemy.
With these developments, the country has to engage China diplomatically to get it to the discussion table and agree on the age old Johson line between Ladakh and Tibet and the Macmahon line on the east between Arunachal Pradesh and Tibet (both of which China did not agree upon). Unless the economic muscle and military might are increased to match that of China, it will be a distant dream to expect China to come anywhere near a discussion table leave alone agreeing on all these demands of India. Therefore, it is a necessity for the country that the domestic industrial participation in manufacture of military assets is a priority which will add to the military might and also increase the country's standing economically. This calls for many reforms in terms of labour laws, corporate laws, land acquisition, tough handling of corruption at political and bureaucratic levels, etc. A beginning has been done in the recent past in terms of labour and corporate laws. Still a long way to go before making India compete with China economically and militarily.
China had been flexing its muscles in the disputed areas of South and East China Sea and it has already annexed a disputed island in the south China sea making it a part of a province in their mainland. Now China is eyeing the disputed territory of Ladakh (refer to earlier blog for historical reasons) and Arunachal Pradesh needling India in the process. Their unilateral transgression of the LAC in the eastern Ladakh where they had already usurped an area of around 37000 Sq KM and named it Aksai Chin in 1962 and building a road from Tibet to Xinjiang is a provocation to see how India reacts.
The frequent meetings at political level and also military level since the last skirmish in 1975 and various agreements had been thrown to wind by China by increasing its military presence in eastern Ladakh in Galwan Valley. The stand off at Doklam in 2017 and consequent return to status-quo-ante had been a block in the China's ambition to link its various provinces in the Himalayan region with a network of roads for easy access and to move its military assets very easily. In eastern Ladakh, where China was angling for annexation of larger area to come under the Aksai Chin and build roads along the Pongsong Tso lake to reach Aksai Chin from Tibet is now thwarted by the stand off between the two countries. India building a road connecting Dabruk with DBO where an unused airfield had been activated earlier is viewed as a big threat to China by its military. Now with the road from Uttarakhand to the border of Tibet on the western border of Nepal via Lipulekh and Kalapani is also viewed seriously by China.
Since 1990, Chinese military had undergone a big make over with many state of the art military machines locally made and imported; they also had been building up their economic might by relaxing many labour norms which attracted many global companies to set up their manufacturing facilities in China. This not only ramped up China's GDP but it also facilitated the country to start manufacturing from pin to plane. Today China is the only country in Asia to manufacture passenger aircraft other than European consortium and Boeing. Even some of the smaller ones in other developed nations have shut shop. China is able to manufacture military aircraft and their own aircraft carriers. With all these developments, the country has amassed a huge foreign exchange reserve in excess of a few trillion dollars. Today, there is not a single product that is manufactured anywhere in the world which does not have a component made in China. Even some of the renowned companies' products have components made in China. Though India is a nuclear power since 1998, China has amassed more number of nuclear warheads compared to India and it is staunchly objecting inclusion of India into the nuclear suppliers' group.
The influence of China extends beyond trade and commerce. They have a great influence in most of the international bodies like UNO, WHO, WTO, UNHRC etc. Their deep pockets help them wield extraordinary influence in these global bodies and no country can stand up to China in these global bodies. It will take the might of all the nations put together to take on China in any or all of these global bodies. In that background, thinking that India can boycott the Chinese products is a distant dream. The trade balance is tilted in favour of China with more exports from than to China. China is able to take on a developed nation like Australia on its own terms threatening it with stoppage of all imports from that country. It may not be very difficult to stop all the imports from India without even talking about it and in these trying times of a pandemic it will be an added burden on the ex-checker.
India on its part has to increase its military power to match that of China immediately within the next twelve to twenty four months. One of the first actions that India has to put in place is to get the delivery of the aircraft from France which is now getting delayed thanks to the pandemic and consequent lock down. The manufacturing of required machinery from armaments to LMGs, tanks, field guns locally with private players' participation has to be improved with more emphasis on additional funds allocation and increased impetus. The manufacturing of fighter aircraft domestically in the country has to be seriously thought about with the available expertise in the public sector to be expanded with inclusion of private sector. These actions on the manufacturing of arms and ammunition and improving the military strength will be posing a deterrent to the enemy.
With these developments, the country has to engage China diplomatically to get it to the discussion table and agree on the age old Johson line between Ladakh and Tibet and the Macmahon line on the east between Arunachal Pradesh and Tibet (both of which China did not agree upon). Unless the economic muscle and military might are increased to match that of China, it will be a distant dream to expect China to come anywhere near a discussion table leave alone agreeing on all these demands of India. Therefore, it is a necessity for the country that the domestic industrial participation in manufacture of military assets is a priority which will add to the military might and also increase the country's standing economically. This calls for many reforms in terms of labour laws, corporate laws, land acquisition, tough handling of corruption at political and bureaucratic levels, etc. A beginning has been done in the recent past in terms of labour and corporate laws. Still a long way to go before making India compete with China economically and militarily.
Exellent analysis, Pattabhi; you write like a military analyst. However, with the current setup of the so-called democracy and our diverse makeup along the lines of language and other factors will not allow India to build a solid military machine. I think a Presidential govt with vast powers to the President will go a long way. My two cents!
ReplyDeleteExcellent and mind blowing analysis. Hope this blog reaches the powers that be.
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