LOCK DOWN, REVERSE MIGRATION AND THE FALLOUT

So much had been written and reported extensively portraying the negative side of the lock down with total lack of empathy to the labour who had migrated to work in his new place of settlement. This is an attempt to look at it from a different perspective.

Many people both from within the country and illegal immigrants from across the border into the state of WB migrated to work in places, far away from their homelands, like Ahmedabad, Surat, Mumbai, Pune, Coimbatore, Tiruppur etc. This was mainly due to the lack of any opportunity for employment to earn their daily bread near their home towns. Many of them have their parents, families back in their villages. It all started much earlier but the cascade started in 2004 when the UPA government came to power for the first time defeating the NDA headed by ABV. Most of the states were ruled by the constituents of UPA and the parties did nothing to improve the economic conditions of these states nor provided any employment opportunities in those states thereby preventing the local population from migrating to bigger cities far off from their home states.

There had not been any serious issue either social, or political or health in the past few decades warranting reverse migration of these people to their native lands. Even at the time of natural calamities like earth quake in Gujarat or Tsunami in TN, cyclones in AP or Odisha the migrants did not resort to return to their native places. However, now in the aftermath of this worldwide virus infection and consequent death of many, the people who migrated from most of the eastern and northern states, fearing for their lives, started an exodus of return to their homeland.

While addressing the nation for the first time in the end of March this year, the PM had indicated that the state governments have been advised to secure the lives of the migrant labour also. He mentioned that the states have been asked to provide food and ration to these migrants also apart from local poor and homeless. The free ration that is provided through the PDS is made available to the states from the central repository of FCI and the states bear a small % of the cost only. Hence the states should have been alert in seeing that the migrant labour also were provided for without any political color to that.

Be that as it may, even in these trying times of fighting a virus like n-Cov2, the main opposition party, which is presently ruling in about six or seven states, ever ready to play politics at the cost of national interest, is making use of these migrants in its game of chess with the ruling party in the center, as pawns. One of the state governments cut off the electricity and water connection to the colonies of the migrant workers in the city thereby forcing the people to trek back to their home state. The government in the state of these migrants immediately arranged hundreds of buses to take them to their destination. The first revolt against the cancellation of trains due to lock-down and the inability of the migrants started rearing its ugly head at Ahmedabad and later at Surat. In both these places, a political opportunism was seen and it was used to fan the anger against the state government and the central government. Later, the struggle spread to Maharashtra where in Mumbai, a huge crowd of more than 2500 people gathered outside a mosque near a suburban station demanding train services to take them home. Once more there was a problem with the migrants in the same city when the migrants demanded transportation to reach their home states. Most of these, protests, riots etc. were reportedly organized by the people owing allegiance to the main opposition party in the center.
When the Railways proposed to run trains only for the migrants to reach their native places (trains to the nearest rail head) one of the state governments did not allow the trains to cross its borders and reach the destination. Later the government relented after a huge protest by the railway officials and workers. The number of trains that were run and the number of passengers they carried worked out to be very minimum considering the millions of people who migrated to work in various commercial activity across the country.
The migrants still remaining in various cities including those in the capital of the country far exceed the capacity of these trains that were run by the government to cater to them. They also want to return to their native villages and towns. The politicization of every human tragedy is in the blood of all politicians irrespective of party and country. Even in a country with the highest number of infections and deaths, politics is taking the front seat with the ruling clique and the opposition blaming each other and calling names. India is no different when it comes to such theatrics. The leader of the main opposition party offered buses to ferry the migrants to their home state, the state chief minister asked the party to give the vehicle numbers and the drivers' names. When a list of such details were received and checked by the state government, it turned out many listed vehicles were three wheeled rickshaws and a few were ambulances. There is no end to politicking every crisis to its advantage by the politicians.
There is a lurking danger in allowing all the migrants to return to their villages. One is in terms of health and spread of the dreaded virus infection from the cities (where it is presently concentrated) to the interior parts of the country. This will make the health care facility strain at its seams to meet the demands of all from the rural to urban to metro cities. Apart from that there is another economic danger in these people returning back to their native villages or towns. They were all employed in various commercial activities in the cities to which they earlier migrated for earning a decent income for themselves and their families. This has put the commercial activities from running a restaurant to some industries at risk of not having enough trained/semi skilled manpower to re-start the same after the lifting of the lock down. Taking this view into account, when a chief minister of a state refused to run trains from his state capital to other places for the migrants, there was a hue and cry that the chief minister was denying them an opportunity to return home. He was forced to relent to permit running of trains from many cities in his state for taking the people back to their home states.
When the finance minister announced various economic measures, including soft loans, subordinated debt, long term loans etc., the industries are generally happy. They may get the money to re-start the units. But the man-power will be woefully inadequate to meet the demands once the severity of this pandemic subsides. The people who are returning back to their villages and towns may not be in a hurry to return to take where they left when the lock down was first imposed. This will put additional burden on all commercial activity that are labour intensive.
As it is post lock-down relaxation, the demand supply mismatch is going to push up the prices and added to that if there is a labour shortage also, the inflation will go through the roof. What all the good efforts of the government and RBI in the last six or seven years to contain the inflation will be brought to naught in the after math of such a scenario. The government's various announcements of stimuli will also add to the woes. In such a scenario, imagine if the suggestion of the main opposition party, to invest each citizen with a sizable amount in his hands is implemented, it will only be an additional impetus to the already feared inflation gallop.