INDIA'S PREDICAMENTS Vs AMBITIOUS CHINA
China had been and continues to be antagonistic towards India from early 1960s. Under the then premier Zhou-En-Lai the famed Hindi-Chini bai bai of Indian prime minister J Nehru did not cut much ice and India faced one of its worst military defeats in recent memory. China claimed part of the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh as its own and had been voicing its objection whenever any development work is undertaken in that area. Economically and militarily, being behind India in the early 1960s, it had overtaken India in the 1990s thanks to its relentless push for opening its economy to the global companies offering them everything a bottom-line driven capitalist corporate looks for. Presently Chinese economy is second largest in the world and its military might, though may not match some of the western powers, is still to be feared as most of the war machines are locally made and its military is very aggressive. It is trying to undermine the resurgence of India as a power in the Asian scenario and also a power to reckon with in the global stage. With that in view it is undertaking many actions silently pushing the envelope far.
China built naval bases around India during the UPA rule during 2004 to 2014 to encircle India and to spy on the Indian military movements. It has a port in Trincomalee in Srilanka, a port in Myanmar, an island base in Myanmar (incidentally this island was gifted to Myanmar by the first independent government of India) and a port in Pakistan, all of which provided for the naval ships of China to berth. It had an arrangement with the government of Maldives when the previous president was in power to operate out of the island country both for its air-force planes and naval ships for refueling and berthing. With the NDA headed by PM Modi coming to power in Delhi, the immediate plan was to break this girdle around the country and with that in mind, the government went about systematically cultivating the neighbours. It paid rich dividends with Iran agreeing for a port at Chabhahar in which the Indian naval ships can be berthed; Vietnam agreeing to berth Indian naval ships in its ports; Indonesia too agreeing to the same. This has more or less made it difficult for the Chinese and its expansion plans into the Bay of Bengal and Arabian sea to encircle India as it had all along objected to the B&R initiative of China and was not ready to be a part of that.
China with its huge pile of cash had been going around the globe lending to any one who is in dire straits. It carries a blank cheque book with it whenever the president or the foreign minister visits any other country. Almost all the countries in the African continent had entered into an agreement with China for a soft loan. Less said about the Asian countries. Even the global bodies like UNO, WHO, UNESCO etc. are now waiting on China for getting the funds released. Recently when POTUS Trump wrote to the WHO that he is temporarily withholding the US contribution (USD 450 Mil) to it, China was ready to offer the world body a whopping USD 2 Bn as against its normal contribution of USD 38 Mil.
The global call for the investigation on the present pandemic and its origin became a red rag for bullish China and it immediately objected though later relented for a WHO lead team to investigate. The fact that there is an admission that the earlier samples of Corona infection in Wuhan had been destroyed tells a different story as to why China has finally agreed for a global investigation on the origin of the virus.
However, the global designs of China had been changing very fast since the present premier Xi was chosen for lifetime president, in the last congress of the two sessions of the communist party of China in 2018. Though, presently he is facing lot of heat on account of rising unemployment (unofficial sources peg it at 20% +), handling of the virus infection and its aftermath in the country, global anger against China in the aftermath of the pandemic, diplomatic issues with USA and Australia, the rising concern of huge BRI debt of its central bank which may collapse the bank, still Xi is expected to remain as the premier of China and General Secretary of CPC which will be confirmed in the bi-annual session of CPC that is currently underway.
The sagarmala plan of India has put spokes in the plan of China in its ambition to expand into Bay of Bengal and Arabian sea. Still it is working around the issue to be a thorn in the neck of India by instigating countries like Nepal and Bangladesh to be a permanent head ache for India. Nepal recently objected to India building a road on the eastern Uttarakhand to reach Kailash Manasarovar in Tibet (occupied by China). The national parliament of Nepal approved a new cartographic map including some of the areas of India within it borders thereby claiming that India is building the road inside Nepal. The Nepalese prime minister K P Sharma Oli has said in its parliament, that no anger of any one will alter the status of Nepal's territorial integrity and its claim on some of the areas. Though India has objected to these diplomatic coups by Nepal, it is very well evident that China is behind all these actions of the Nepalese government presently ruled by the Nepal Communist Party.
Bangladesh has been reeling under severe financial strain thanks to the world wide lock down, absence of transportation and its own fight against the pandemic. Despite the best efforts, the country is having a huge number of infections and the rate is increasing daily and the death toll is also mounting. Added to that the country was recently battered by the super cyclone Amphan which wrecked the country and left it devastated. China, with its huge reserves, is ever ready to jump into help Bangladesh in these difficult times with an offer of USD 1 Bn. China's actions in Pakistan are well known and documented which need no repetition.
China had been influencing the local communist party leaders and through them create as many road blocks as possible for the industrial renaissance of India. Even existing industrial concerns had been facing some of the worst possible protests and presently the communist party of India (M) had decided for a nation-wide protest against the global companies relocating to India from China.
Though the BRI is likely to be a big concern for its banks, which may even break the bank, still the country is going around increasing its foot hold in many corporate world over. Recently, China acquired a controlling stake in Norwegian airlines through the leasing arm BOC Aviation, which got the lease rentals as equity and got the controlling rights over the company. BOC Aviation is part of the Bank of China and it is in the aviation leasing business based out of Singapore. Germany and some other European nations have taken some pro active action against hostile take over by Chinese investors. India too had made FDI from its neighbours requiring pre clearance from the government. US has introduced a bill in its congress (a bi-partisan one) to de-list some of the Chinese corporate from its bourses. If it becomes an act, then some of the Chinese firms that are listed in US bourses will be de-listed. Already some of the stocks of Chinese corporate like Alibaba.com, listed in US are trading lower thanks to this impending measure.
The Chinese are flexing their muscle in the south and east China seas especially near Taiwan and Japan respectively. Over the disputed island, in east China sea, between Japan and China, now China is claiming ownership. Likewise, it has already taken over three disputed islands in the south China sea and renamed them as part of its own territory despite objections from other south China sea nations like Vietnam, Phillipines, Malaysia, Indonesia and Taiwan. The Chinese had been, so far successful in keeping Taiwan out of any of the global forums like UNO, WHO etc.on the premise that Taiwan is part of China and there is a principle of One China in all the global forum, which is vehemently denied and objected to by Taiwan and its newly elected for the second time, president Tsai Ing-Wen. China and its wolf warriors, (to borrow a term from one of the TV Channels) assert president Tsai is a separatist and they claim it is one China and two systems.
All these pointers are giving rise to the concern of the world comity of nations that China had been actively pursuing a vigorous action plan for getting a place at the top of the table in the comity of nations. It is seen as power mongering by many in the west, in the uni-polar world post the splitting up of USSR into smaller nations and leaving the world with one super power in USA. Howsoever, India has to tread very cautiously in the near to mid term for securing its borders from any attack from east and west. It also has to prepare a strategy to tackle the threat of China in its endeavor to cultivate our neighboring countries as its client states. Nepal and Bhutan are quite vulnerable in this scenario. The memory of Tibet should not be lost on the policy makers in India and how China road rolled Tibet to claim it as its own territory.
China built naval bases around India during the UPA rule during 2004 to 2014 to encircle India and to spy on the Indian military movements. It has a port in Trincomalee in Srilanka, a port in Myanmar, an island base in Myanmar (incidentally this island was gifted to Myanmar by the first independent government of India) and a port in Pakistan, all of which provided for the naval ships of China to berth. It had an arrangement with the government of Maldives when the previous president was in power to operate out of the island country both for its air-force planes and naval ships for refueling and berthing. With the NDA headed by PM Modi coming to power in Delhi, the immediate plan was to break this girdle around the country and with that in mind, the government went about systematically cultivating the neighbours. It paid rich dividends with Iran agreeing for a port at Chabhahar in which the Indian naval ships can be berthed; Vietnam agreeing to berth Indian naval ships in its ports; Indonesia too agreeing to the same. This has more or less made it difficult for the Chinese and its expansion plans into the Bay of Bengal and Arabian sea to encircle India as it had all along objected to the B&R initiative of China and was not ready to be a part of that.
China with its huge pile of cash had been going around the globe lending to any one who is in dire straits. It carries a blank cheque book with it whenever the president or the foreign minister visits any other country. Almost all the countries in the African continent had entered into an agreement with China for a soft loan. Less said about the Asian countries. Even the global bodies like UNO, WHO, UNESCO etc. are now waiting on China for getting the funds released. Recently when POTUS Trump wrote to the WHO that he is temporarily withholding the US contribution (USD 450 Mil) to it, China was ready to offer the world body a whopping USD 2 Bn as against its normal contribution of USD 38 Mil.
The global call for the investigation on the present pandemic and its origin became a red rag for bullish China and it immediately objected though later relented for a WHO lead team to investigate. The fact that there is an admission that the earlier samples of Corona infection in Wuhan had been destroyed tells a different story as to why China has finally agreed for a global investigation on the origin of the virus.
However, the global designs of China had been changing very fast since the present premier Xi was chosen for lifetime president, in the last congress of the two sessions of the communist party of China in 2018. Though, presently he is facing lot of heat on account of rising unemployment (unofficial sources peg it at 20% +), handling of the virus infection and its aftermath in the country, global anger against China in the aftermath of the pandemic, diplomatic issues with USA and Australia, the rising concern of huge BRI debt of its central bank which may collapse the bank, still Xi is expected to remain as the premier of China and General Secretary of CPC which will be confirmed in the bi-annual session of CPC that is currently underway.
The sagarmala plan of India has put spokes in the plan of China in its ambition to expand into Bay of Bengal and Arabian sea. Still it is working around the issue to be a thorn in the neck of India by instigating countries like Nepal and Bangladesh to be a permanent head ache for India. Nepal recently objected to India building a road on the eastern Uttarakhand to reach Kailash Manasarovar in Tibet (occupied by China). The national parliament of Nepal approved a new cartographic map including some of the areas of India within it borders thereby claiming that India is building the road inside Nepal. The Nepalese prime minister K P Sharma Oli has said in its parliament, that no anger of any one will alter the status of Nepal's territorial integrity and its claim on some of the areas. Though India has objected to these diplomatic coups by Nepal, it is very well evident that China is behind all these actions of the Nepalese government presently ruled by the Nepal Communist Party.
Bangladesh has been reeling under severe financial strain thanks to the world wide lock down, absence of transportation and its own fight against the pandemic. Despite the best efforts, the country is having a huge number of infections and the rate is increasing daily and the death toll is also mounting. Added to that the country was recently battered by the super cyclone Amphan which wrecked the country and left it devastated. China, with its huge reserves, is ever ready to jump into help Bangladesh in these difficult times with an offer of USD 1 Bn. China's actions in Pakistan are well known and documented which need no repetition.
China had been influencing the local communist party leaders and through them create as many road blocks as possible for the industrial renaissance of India. Even existing industrial concerns had been facing some of the worst possible protests and presently the communist party of India (M) had decided for a nation-wide protest against the global companies relocating to India from China.
Though the BRI is likely to be a big concern for its banks, which may even break the bank, still the country is going around increasing its foot hold in many corporate world over. Recently, China acquired a controlling stake in Norwegian airlines through the leasing arm BOC Aviation, which got the lease rentals as equity and got the controlling rights over the company. BOC Aviation is part of the Bank of China and it is in the aviation leasing business based out of Singapore. Germany and some other European nations have taken some pro active action against hostile take over by Chinese investors. India too had made FDI from its neighbours requiring pre clearance from the government. US has introduced a bill in its congress (a bi-partisan one) to de-list some of the Chinese corporate from its bourses. If it becomes an act, then some of the Chinese firms that are listed in US bourses will be de-listed. Already some of the stocks of Chinese corporate like Alibaba.com, listed in US are trading lower thanks to this impending measure.
The Chinese are flexing their muscle in the south and east China seas especially near Taiwan and Japan respectively. Over the disputed island, in east China sea, between Japan and China, now China is claiming ownership. Likewise, it has already taken over three disputed islands in the south China sea and renamed them as part of its own territory despite objections from other south China sea nations like Vietnam, Phillipines, Malaysia, Indonesia and Taiwan. The Chinese had been, so far successful in keeping Taiwan out of any of the global forums like UNO, WHO etc.on the premise that Taiwan is part of China and there is a principle of One China in all the global forum, which is vehemently denied and objected to by Taiwan and its newly elected for the second time, president Tsai Ing-Wen. China and its wolf warriors, (to borrow a term from one of the TV Channels) assert president Tsai is a separatist and they claim it is one China and two systems.
All these pointers are giving rise to the concern of the world comity of nations that China had been actively pursuing a vigorous action plan for getting a place at the top of the table in the comity of nations. It is seen as power mongering by many in the west, in the uni-polar world post the splitting up of USSR into smaller nations and leaving the world with one super power in USA. Howsoever, India has to tread very cautiously in the near to mid term for securing its borders from any attack from east and west. It also has to prepare a strategy to tackle the threat of China in its endeavor to cultivate our neighboring countries as its client states. Nepal and Bhutan are quite vulnerable in this scenario. The memory of Tibet should not be lost on the policy makers in India and how China road rolled Tibet to claim it as its own territory.
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