IMPACT OF VIRUS INFECTION IN INDIA

The corona virus was first detected in end January when a student from the University in Wuhan returned to his home in Thrissur, Kerala.  The infection was more or less under control with only a few hundreds getting infected all over the country mainly on account of people returning from abroad. Till 28th March 2020 the daily increase had not been alarming and the government having declared a total lock down across the country from the midnight of 24th March 2020 was expecting some saving grace from the researchers who are racing against time to find an antidote and also a vaccine against this disease.  The testing of the suspected cases across the country had not picked up pace as the number of testing laboratories were not enough for the population to be tested.  Moreover, the results took more time to come to the hospitals to confirm the infection or otherwise. The government had asked the private laboratories to pitch in and identified almost a hundred laboratories nationwide for this purpose.  The government also capped the cost of testing at private laboratories at INR 4500/-. This augmented the testing of suspected cases.  Scrapping this fee by the SC is an altogether a different subject.

Between 28th March and to 10th April, the daily increase of infections and the patients admitted to isolation wards have gone through the roof thanks mainly to the religious congregation of people from a particular community in Delhi.  Many foreigners who reportedly took part in this congregation spread out to different parts of the country with many going to distant places in states like Tamilnadu, Maharasthra, Telangana, and a few hundreds remaining in Delhi.  Most of these foreign attendees on being apprehended from across the country found to have been infected with the virus.  This apart, the local attendees who went to the congregation remained silent about their participation and were casually going around their daily routine and mingling with locals in their locality.  These two factors added to the sudden increase on a daily basis from a few tens to hundreds on a daily basis in the period as discussed above.

So much has been written about the economic impact and every industry worth its salt and their association are demanding their share from the largesse of the government's stimulus package.  The one industry which is not organized and depends more on labour intensive operations is the agriculture and they are now deprived of both a market for their produce in the absence of transportation and looking at a bleak future.  The industry is not organized as in the case of many others and though mechanization has already started entering this, the smaller parcels of lands makes the mechanized operations economically not a viable one. Even assuming the operations resume in all earnestness and going forward with harvest and produce are available, the farmers are going to find it difficult to find a market in the absence of trucks to transport their produce. There are already reports of farmers throwing away or allow to wither in the plants themselves their produce of vegetables, flowers, fruits etc.

There is a serious discussion on extending the lock down and two states have already announced extension till end of April 2020 anticipating that this will reduce the increase in number of infections.  Few more states are weighing their options to extend the lock down. The central government is engaging in parleys with all the stake holders including medical professionals of all streams from across the country and they may come out with the decision on the extension of lock down in a day or two, as it is being written (11th April 2020).  Even then, the reduction in daily increase may not happen as a sizable number of the attendees are yet to be traced and the governments' call for voluntary disclosure of their attendance and going for testing for infection falling on deaf ears.  The governments have already started marking areas in each district, city as contaminated and announced containment areas directing no one to go out of or come into these areas.  These include cities, areas in cities, villages, towns, districts etc.

The governments bravely confirm that the country is not yet into stage 3 of the pandemic.  But the daily increase in infected cases belie this contention of the governments. There are many infected who do not have any history of foreign travel.  Unless there is a human to human interaction resulting in infection how these people got infected? That apart, the Director General of International Vaccine Institute Dr. Jerome H Kim was categorical in his assessment that India is in the stage where other countries like S Korea, China, US, Italy and others were there before full blown stage 3 infection.  He was all praise for the actions of the governments so far, but cautioned that the country may look at a very high number of infections and consequent deaths in the coming months.  He said the countries may require billions and billions of vaccine to effectively vaccinate almost all the humans on the earth.  He added further the governments have to decide on who to be vaccinated first once the vaccination is made available.  Should it be the first responders, medical personnel, police, or others have to be decided by the individual governments.

The countries in the world especially the population in most of the cities are looking at a very high food shortage in the months to come in the absence of transportation of food from one place to another with a total lock down across the globe of all activities.  This may force some of the countries looking at famine as it is not ruled out.  Even within the country, India should think seriously in allowing transporting of food grains and essential goods across the country despite the lock down, which may get extended; failing which the country may have pockets of famine affected and it may lead to much more social issues and riots.

The government had reportedly formed a panel headed by the finance minister to look into the possible economic disruption and take prompt corrective action.  Now is the time for the governments both at center and the states to start working towards making available the food grains and essentials.  The governments also have to ensure that there is no hoarding of non perishable food items for profiteering and black marketing.  Failing on these fronts is going to make the life of common man a miserable one.  The governments cannot go on support the people economically by doling out largesse by way of monetary support and in kind as the treasury of the governments will become empty in the background of no economic activity.  The borrowing of the governments from the Reserve Bank and the public is at such a level they may not be able to raise resources to meet these demands.  

The governments have to decide and walk on a very thin line between the economic compulsions and social compulsions. The limited opening of the economic activity in those places that are least affected, curtailing the expenditure in all other areas that are not economically viable or productive, increasing the coverage of testing of the population and isolating and treating the newly infected and continuing to identify and contain areas with higher infections have to be thought of as options to offset the economic losses and consequent revenue loss to the government to sustain the efforts on the fight against the unseen enemy.