POST PULWAMA ATTACK

While the terror attack on the CRPF convoy at Pulwama raised lot of global condemnation, there was absolutely no voice of protest over the air-strike on the terror camps both in POK and inside Pakistan.  On the other hand, there were voices supporting for a retaliatory strike and saying that India has a right to avenge the terror strike.  This has been one of the best diplomatic victories of the Modi government. 

The Pak PM made a grand declaration to the world that the pilot of the ill fated MiG21 was being released as a peace gesture. While the world in general and India in particular were waiting for the actual release of the pilot, there were cross border attacks in Jammu and Kashmir.  Though two terrorists were neutralised, five security personnel were martyred.  The Pak PM's claim of peace gesture fell flat on these developments. In the long wait for the release of the pilot the Pak army as usual tried to use the pilot for its own nefarious activities by filming him and pressurising him for some sound bytes in favour of Pakistan. The heavily edited and manufactured video was released just before the release of the pilot to coincide with the prime time news at 9 PM though it was stated that the pilot would be released by 3 PM.

From the time of the Pulwama attack and later the air-strike many of the leaders of the opposition parties in the country had been demanding proof of attack, thereby playing into the hands of Pakistan.  One of the leaders of the GOP had gone on to say that when US could provide evidence of taking down Osama Bin Laden why India cannot provide the evidence of the air-strike on Balakot which reportedly took down many terrorist cadre and commanders.  Another leader was suggesting that the Pulwama attack itself is a qustionable issue as there was no evidence. Some one else was saying that the reported terror strike and subsequent retaliatory air-strike were only for political mileage of the ruling party in the ensuing election.  This argument was used by Pakistan to dismiss the claim of the IAF on the success of the strike on Balakot. All these claims of the leaders of the opposition border on treason and tarnishing the armed forces. When a case of sedition can be slapped on the students in JNU for raising anti India slogans, why no action is taken against these so called leaders of the opposition parties?  It would be better if case is filed against them under the Army act and they are tried in a military court instead of a civil court.

The OIC extended an invitation to the Minister of External Affairs Mrs. Sushma Swaraj to be a guest speaker in the assembly.  This in the backdrop of the fact that when former President Fakhruddin Ali Ahmed who went to attend the meet,  was sent back cancelling the invite to a similar meet of OIC earlier as it was opposed by Pakistan. The EAM spoke well and the speech was well received, though Pakistan, a founding member of OIC,  chose to abstain from the meet protesting the invite to India.  Though the OIC at the end of the meet decided to pass a resolution condemning India for its actions in J&K which it chose to call India Occupied Kashmir.  India lodged its strongest protest for the resolution. The UK which was the ruler of the undivided India till 1947 and was a party for the division of the country, had been referring to J&K state of India as India Occupied Kashmir since 1947.  Nobody seems to object to that so far.  However, some vested interest both in media and in the social media highlighted this aberration of the resolution at the end of the meet than hailing very invite to the country despite objections from Pakistan.

Be that as it may,  let us look at various points of benefit to the country.  First, India had demonstrated to the world in general and Pakistan in particular that when it comes to action against terrorism, it would not brook any geographical boundaries.  Nor it would be deterred by the sovereignty of the country involved. It has already proved this in the action in Myanmar against the militants of North East who went into Myanmar for a refuge.  None of the countries voiced their protest against the air-strike.  This was a great diplomatic victory.  It has also demonstrated its superiority of its armed forces despite not having any modern war machines.

Second, the action against terror and later removing Pakistan from its MFN status, hiking the customs duty for imports from there etc. has put so much economic pressure on Pakistan that it is reportedly tottering on the brink of economic collapse. Pakistan cannot sustain its campaign against India even for a week in case of a full blown war is the reality.  The PAF will be without ATF for its fleet and the country will not have enough reserve to buy arms and ammunition.

The exchange value of Pakistan Rupee vis-a-vis  USD has already gone down south.  From around 125/- per USD it has already nose dived to 140/- per dollar.  The Karachi stock exchange has crashed drastically in three days since the air-strike losing more than a third. There is a huge shortage of essentials like vegetable and fuel. The trade gap and the level of foreign exchange reserve are so alarming that any day the country will go bankrupt.  Though China earlier had offered to bankroll some of the imports, the cost of such offer will be huge.  The country had already pledged one of its ports to China. IMF had not agreed to release the loan.  USA has gone back on their earlier promise despite the caucus is trying its level best to get the administration to release the financial aid to Pakistan. The country is moving from one crisis to another by begging and borrowing from other countries to meet its cost of imports. Most of the senior officers of the Pak armed forces are reportedly running commercial ventures both within and outside the country. Any inflation in the country or absence of essentials is not going to affect them. But these are difficult times for the general population of Pakistan.

Pakistan population and the political leaders have to come out of the clutches of the deep state within the country.  Both the Pakistan army and its dreaded ISI have been running the country fronting with political leaders. Both the army and the ISI remain in the background and determine the policies of the government be it economic, political or social. Whosoever, is the elected prime minister or others, if they step out of line of the diktats of the Army and ISI, they may be removed and a coup will emerge to install a military leader as the country's head.  It has happened many times in the past since 1950s. The army and the ISI are capable of manipulating the events to suit their designs. The interview of Shah Mohammed Quershi, the Pakistan foreign minister on the terror master mind Maulana Masood Azhar has to be seen in this light. As it is jocularly said, when other countries have armies, in Pakistan, the army has a country is not just a reality but a great threat to peaceful existence of the general population of the country.  

How Pakistan is going to come out of the clutches of the deep state within will be an interesting development to watch.  Whether the current political dispensation has it in them to do that, is to be seen. If they do not, Pakistan as a country may not be existing for long.