ELECTIONS 2019 - WHO WILL WIN THE CUP?

The elections to the national parliament had been announced by the Election Commission of India.  Once again, after a five year gap, the world is going to witness a large democratic exercise underway from around 1st week of April till third week of May this year.  From a place which cannot be found even in a detailed map of the country to the largest and most populous metropolis in the country every place is going to hum with the din of the election canvassing and the parties trying to woo the electorate.  Some of the parties have already stitched an alliance with local and national parties; but some of the major parties have not yet come to an understanding to form an alliance to fight the election.  Most of the opposition parties' only common denominator seems to be to defeat the incumbent prime minister Modi and his party BJP in the hustings.  Other than that there is no commonality among any of these parties who are aligned against the present government. 

In the present parliament that is to be dissolved, the only party with a three digit number of members is the BJP and the GOP is coming a far second with just 45 members to its credit.  Some of the regional parties, like ADMK, TMC, BJD etc., have done creditably well in the last election to win a handsome number of seats.  The pre-poll alliance in 2014 of NDA, with a major partner TDP in it had collapsed; TDP walked out of the alliance.  The SAD and Shiv Sena had been bickering with the major partner BJP about the number of seats in the ensuing elections and after lots of haggling the parties have formed an alliance with BJP to continue the NDA.  

However, it is not all that rosy for the GOP as well.  Though as many as 23 parties came together in Kolkata on the invite of Chandrababu Naidu of TDP, there was no cohesion among them.  There was a strong opposition to the congress and its president being projected as the prime ministerial candidate. The Samajwadi party and the Bahujan Samajwadi Party have announced going together, without congress in UP.  The GOP is still trying to stitch together a pre-poll coalition to fight the elections so as to avoid multi cornered fights.  The time seems to be running out as the grass-root level workers have not yet been convinced about the need for the coalition. 

In this background let us examine which party/ alliance is likely to get the deciding number of members to form the next government at the center.  The absence of a concrete alliance with major parties is likely to cost the GOP in the elections.  The GOP or other opposition parties may not be able to avoid a multi corner fights in many places thereby splitting votes that may go against the ruling clique. In that scenario, the BJP and its allies are likely to romp home victorious.  

In some states the contrast of congress alliance is quite stark.  In one state GOP is aligning with the communists and in the other it is opposing them.  In the present day world of social media information explosion, such paradoxes will cost both the GOP and the communists.  Most of the regional satraps started their regional outfits with a stated policy of anti congress and its earlier president Sonia Gandhi.  But today, almost all of them have joined together with the congress to fight the election and their only goal seems to be to defeat BJP and stop it from coming back to power.  Such opportunistic alliances also do not go unnoticed by the netizens and the information flow through the social media is a bit scary to think about such outrageous alliances.

The alliance between the congress and the regional Janata Dal (Secular) of the former prime minister H D Deve Gowda is something out of a fairy tale.  The present chief minister of Karnataka had openly said that he is being pressurised into some decisions by the congress and its members in the assembly.  The people of the state have witnessed the tamasha that is being played inside and outside the assembly by the JD(S) and Congress.  If the feelings expressed in the social media is to be taken as a pointer, the alliance may not get enough muster in the ensuing elections to the parliament.

The alliance in the neighbouring Tamilnadu among the main opposition party DMK and others is fast becoming a thing of ridicule for the actions of the party cadre in various acts of vandalism and attack.  The netizens who are making a joke of whatever the leader of the party says are enjoying every moment of the talk of the leader of the opposition in the state assembly and attack the party for the acts of vandalism of its cadre.  If the mood of the voters is to be gauged on the public perception of the present government both at center and at the state, it is likely the ruling parties who have formed an alliance may come out victorious in the fight to finish.  

The anti communists sentiment in the state of Kerala in the aftermath of the government's attempts to implement the SC ruling in Sabarimala case but overlook the same SC ruling in case of the Church, is building up and the BJP is trying to cash in on this.  Though the state election commission has issued a diktat not to use the Sabarimala issue in the election canvassing, it cannot be effectively monitored or ensured.  Similar issues in the past had been milked by the parties to their benefit.  There is every chance that both the LDF and the opposition UDF have failed to gauge the voters resentment with the way the SC ruling on Sabarimala was handled by the government and silent support from the opposition.  The BJP is likely to use this as an attack on the majority and milk it to win more seats.

The one state where the BJP may face a tough challenge is in Odisha where the present incumbent ruling party BJD has been doing extremely well and despite loss of one of its prominent faces to BJP, it may still get a sizable number of wins.  In Bengal, the ruling TMC had used up all its tricks to stall the BJP from getting a strong foothold in the state but in vain.  The support to the BJP is seen growing and despite the communists' quarter century rule and the present government in place for almost four full years, is not going to deter the BJP from getting a good number of seats in Bengal compared to the position in the last election. 

Despite an alliance with Shiv Sena in place, the BJP in Maharashtra is going to have some tough times though the young chief minister had done some wonderful work in some of the most arid places of the state.  The Muslims of the state are likely to tilt the scales in deciding the number of seats for the ruling front.  In Gujarat, the BJP had been in power for more than 15 years and despite this there are many chinks in its armour there.  There is a pressure on the state leadership in tackling internal rivalry and external threat from young local leaders who are aligned with congress both in the state and in the center. The national president of BJP, who is from the state, will have his hands full in trying to fulfill the aspirations of many contenders. 

Despite all the above permutation and combination of the poll arithmetic, the BJP lead NDA, without TDP in its ranks, is likely to get slightly more than what it got last time in 2014.  BJP may increase its personal tally from 268 to 280 (+/- 5) in the overall position. This calculation is based on the present set of alignment and alliances of opposition parties and also BJP and its pre-poll alliances already finalised.  The alliances, if any, in opposition parties at top leaders' level have not percolated down to the cadre and the grass root level workers have not yet accepted such alliances for working for a candidate of a party against whom they had been working all along.  This may prove costly for the opposition parties despite alliances.  The time available for stitching an alliance against BJP lead NDA like in 2004, is now very limited and the parties are already in parley to decide the candidates for various seats in their respective zones/ states of influence.  In that background, there is every chance that BJP lead NDA will form the next government with an increased mandate.  The write up has not taken into account the actions of the BJP lead NDA government in tackling terrorism, consequent surgical strikes and its impact on the voters' psyche.  Also this write up has consciously omitted to take into account the constant barrage by the president of GOP and the cacophony of voices of scam over the defense air craft deal  and its likely impact on the voters.