PULWAMA ATTACK AND POLITICAL RAMIFICATIONS - PART 2

In part 1, I had written about the internal ramifications of the Pulwama attack.  Let us take a look at what are the options before the government of India to retaliate the dastardly terror attack on the CRPF convoy; likely scenario in the backdrop of the Pakistan's prime minister Imran Khan's stated position that they will retaliate if there is any offensive from Indian side.

The options before the government of India is very limited.  It is going towards a general election hardly in about two months. The election commission may declare election to the parliament any time within the next thirty days.  The government of the day will only be a care-taker government.  How this will impact the necessary retaliation to the terror attack on the convoy is to be seen.   Delaying the retaliatory strike further will reduce the impact and the foreign governments who had sort of pledged their support for the country to retaliate may rethink their stated position. Not only that, that will give the enemy enough time to move out the terror outfits away from the LOC to deep within the country.  As it is, there are unconfirmed reports that the Pak army and ISI had already shifted the two masterminds Hafiz Sayeed and Masood Azhar to some safe houses away from POK. Even if the strike is to eliminate the terror outfits and the masterminds only, the strike will be seen as igniting a war with the enemy of 70 years.  This may force some of the foreign governments to alter their stand vis-a-vis India from what it is in the immediate aftermath of the terror strike.

The biggest worry may be China which has already thrice thwarted the efforts of India in getting Masood Azhar named as a Global terrorist through its veto power in the UN.  The Chinese army is also reportedly downsizing its army by moving its men to other two arms of the armed forces viz. air-force and navy. China is already building its third AC and it has superior numerical strength of air-crafts and naval vessels compared to India. But there are again reports that the men are not conversant with the modern weaponry and armed assets.  Though, given time,  this may be overcome by China. Will they enter into a conflict with India on the issue of support to Pakistan and its terror heads is a moot question.  China would love to have a pliant political leadership in India so that its interest in north east part of India and in Doklam in the tri-junction of Sikkim, India and China is not affected with show of force and use, if it comes to it; China also will have one economic enemy less to take care of in the global trade.

If the retaliatory strike escalates into a major conflict, hoping sans nuclear arms, China may assist Pakistan with material from its armoury only for its own benefits of keeping Pakistan completely under an enormous debt. OBOR, CPEC and supply of missiles  have already added to the debt burden of Pakistan and China's foot-hold in Pakistan is getting stronger thanks to these.  The handing over of the port in Baluchistan will look a small price to what China will extract from Pakistan in the event of any major conflict with India. It will be proxy fighting with India through Pakistan but may annex more areas of POK to itself and demand some more concessions which over a period of time will prove extremely costly. Given the  present position of the Muslims in China, the Pakistani nationals will have a tougher time under China. 

If the retaliation escalates into a major conflict a la Kargil, then there is no guarantee this time, that the Pakistan army will shy away from using nuclear arms against India.  In that scenario, the neighbours will fight a nuclear war which will reduce Pakistan to rubble and damage major part of India. Other countries, fearing a fall out, may resort to arm twisting both the governments from use of nuclear weapons. In the scenario of nuclear war, if India is reduced to pre-independence state of economy, China will have even a bigger market than before.  In that calculation,  China may enter the scene to upstage India as it has already lost considerably due to slowing down of its own economy and the economic growth of India in the last five years.  However, there may not be any victor or loser in a nuclear war except that given the size of Pakistan it may cease to exist as one country post war and India may limp to normality in the next fifty odd years. The casualty for both nations will be very high and a major portion of the population of South Asia will get wiped out due to the nuclear war.

What are the chances that India going for a surgical strike again? Many. This time, instead of using a land based attack, India may use the UAVs (Drones) and pin pointed air strikes to eliminate the terror outfits and their hideouts.  It may take the offered assistance from Israel.  The intel input that out of the total quantity of RDX smuggled into the country from across the border, still some major portion is not accounted for is worrisome. It may be used in some stray places in the valley and in Jammu areas to create disturbance once the elections are announced.  Sooner the security forces recover the balance quantity of RDX, it is better for the overall security of the nation going into elections within a short period of time.

What is more worrying is that some of the leaders of the GOP who openly canvassed for the support of Pakistan to topple the present government and to defeat the ruling party in the elections.  Not just China or Pakistan, even some of the leaders of the GOP seem to be happy to have a government without the present prime minister.  What actions the government of India is going to take against the konwn enemies and the enemies within the country is to be seen.