CHINA - A THREAT? IN NEAR TERM
We have been reading and hearing in the TV news channels the build up of artillery and other fire power along the border on the eastern front and in Doklam plateau by China. China had been trying to boss around in the Indian Ocean and in the immediate neighbourhood of India for some time now. The Chinese game plan has been to go to the help of the nations surrounding India and liberally lend for development. The OROB and CPEC are two of the actions of the Chinese government in getting the government of the day in those countries to agree for development with the loan assistance from China. In Srilanka they tried to get the Trincomalee port development, in Pakistan they took up Gawdar port and in Maldives they had taken up another port development. In all these countries, the Chinese government had extensively invested through its development bank by way to G2G agreements. These agreements provide for the Chinese government to use these facilities for its military purposes in case of need.
Though, some of the actions of China had been blunted since 2014 thanks to the aggressive diplomacy by the present government and change in governments in some of the neighboring countries, the risk of the dragon poking its nose is always there. Take for instance the unrest created in Srilanka in which the previous President Mahinda Rajapakse trying to get a political foothold and the reported rift between the present President and the Prime Minister of the island nation. Likewise, the unrest in Maldives is a pointer to what extent the Chinese had influenced is seen in the way India had been kept away from the recent troubles in the island nation. China went to the extent of issuing a warning to India to keep away from Maldives. For a country farther away than India to tell it to keep away shows the influence it is holding in the political establishment of the country. Nepal with the changing of power to the communists supported government recently, it is but natural to fall into the laps of the China very easily. The Bangladesh and Myanmar are having their own internal and inter-country problems and China is able to capitalize on this. Bhutan, though a small land locked nation in the HImalayas, and looks up to India for all its requirements, the communism in the neighboring Nepal has its impact there also. The Sagar Mala scheme of the government of Modi is running into rough weather with opposition from some of the states in south. Now with the TDP out of the government, they may also object to the same. In the past many years the successive governments had treated these neighbors as of lesser mortal and now we are paying the price for such mistreatment. It is another matter that when Nepal wanted to join the Indian mainstream in the immediate pre-independent days, JN thought better of it and refused the same. China had been time and again voicing its opposition to any leader of India visiting the Arunachal Pradesh a state within the country annexation of which with India at the time of independence, China is disputing ever since. Let us also remember that while India remains a democracy with no stable policy in terms of the neighbors or even a foreign policy (it keeps changing with the change in the government) China had been more a dictatorship with a firm hold on its stated policies. Let us look at the military might of the Asia's largest nuclear neighbors.
China has a budget of just 1.9% of its GDP, in actual terms it is USD 215 Bn. It has about 260 nuclear warheads and the count is increasing almost on a year to year basis. They have 2.3 million active personnel with 510,000 reserves and have 385 million ready to be inducted into the services. The military service is compulsory in China. The armored vehicles including tanks are estimated to be about 14000 and about 9800 artillery guns of various sizes and firepower. They have total 3800 aircraft and 1 aircraft carrier and 750 other types of vessels. The submarine count is a staggering 73 which makes it the fourth largest in the world after USA, Russia and UK. In comparison India spends 2.5% of its GDP on military but in absolute terms it is only USD 55.9 Bn. It has about 120 or so nuclear war heads. It has an army of 2.14 million personnel and 1.155 million reserves. It has 319 million ready personnel for active duty. But the military service is voluntary and not compulsory. It has total 10000 armored vehicles including tanks and about 5000 total artillery guns of all types and fire power. It has only 2200 aircraft of all types and 2 aircraft carriers and 212 vessels of all types. The submarine count is only 15 and it takes about a year to two to build a submarine, test and float the same.
Given the above comparison, the edge is definitely in favor of China. But the Indian forces had been subjected to repeated testing of its preparedness in the last seventy years which the Chinese forces had not been except its foray into India in 1962 when it gave a bloody nose to India and its unsuccessful transgression into Vietnam in 1979. However, the election of the current president of the PRC and changing the rules to favor him to remain a president for life, may spell a different story to the world in general and India in particular. The Xi Jinping equation in the relations with the neighbors and his ways of doing business leaving the neighbors of India into deep debt to capitalize on the same is something of an economic war against these neighbors which may spell a different trouble to India. The policy makers of India have to be extremely careful to tread on the timid toes of China.
The pointers are more towards the China emerging a true world power in the absence of USSR in Europe to take on the might of USA and the consequences for India are a trifle difficult in the short term. India despite its frequent changing power sharing among the major parties of far right BJP and left of center Congress with their allies and supporters, has to have a steady and powerful foreign policy. What was witnessed in the decade ending 2014 was something that has to be forgotten as a bad dream. Likewise the modernization of the Indian armed forces and acquisition of the necessary firepower, floating power and flying power are the needs of the hour and they have to remain steady and same irrespective of the party in power and also to be extremely transparent and free of allegations-of-corruption. These two are essential in the short to near mid term to tackle the threat of China acquiring itself the role of mentor and supporter of most of the neighbors of India and making the Indian Ocean its own play ground.
China has a budget of just 1.9% of its GDP, in actual terms it is USD 215 Bn. It has about 260 nuclear warheads and the count is increasing almost on a year to year basis. They have 2.3 million active personnel with 510,000 reserves and have 385 million ready to be inducted into the services. The military service is compulsory in China. The armored vehicles including tanks are estimated to be about 14000 and about 9800 artillery guns of various sizes and firepower. They have total 3800 aircraft and 1 aircraft carrier and 750 other types of vessels. The submarine count is a staggering 73 which makes it the fourth largest in the world after USA, Russia and UK. In comparison India spends 2.5% of its GDP on military but in absolute terms it is only USD 55.9 Bn. It has about 120 or so nuclear war heads. It has an army of 2.14 million personnel and 1.155 million reserves. It has 319 million ready personnel for active duty. But the military service is voluntary and not compulsory. It has total 10000 armored vehicles including tanks and about 5000 total artillery guns of all types and fire power. It has only 2200 aircraft of all types and 2 aircraft carriers and 212 vessels of all types. The submarine count is only 15 and it takes about a year to two to build a submarine, test and float the same.
Given the above comparison, the edge is definitely in favor of China. But the Indian forces had been subjected to repeated testing of its preparedness in the last seventy years which the Chinese forces had not been except its foray into India in 1962 when it gave a bloody nose to India and its unsuccessful transgression into Vietnam in 1979. However, the election of the current president of the PRC and changing the rules to favor him to remain a president for life, may spell a different story to the world in general and India in particular. The Xi Jinping equation in the relations with the neighbors and his ways of doing business leaving the neighbors of India into deep debt to capitalize on the same is something of an economic war against these neighbors which may spell a different trouble to India. The policy makers of India have to be extremely careful to tread on the timid toes of China.
The pointers are more towards the China emerging a true world power in the absence of USSR in Europe to take on the might of USA and the consequences for India are a trifle difficult in the short term. India despite its frequent changing power sharing among the major parties of far right BJP and left of center Congress with their allies and supporters, has to have a steady and powerful foreign policy. What was witnessed in the decade ending 2014 was something that has to be forgotten as a bad dream. Likewise the modernization of the Indian armed forces and acquisition of the necessary firepower, floating power and flying power are the needs of the hour and they have to remain steady and same irrespective of the party in power and also to be extremely transparent and free of allegations-of-corruption. These two are essential in the short to near mid term to tackle the threat of China acquiring itself the role of mentor and supporter of most of the neighbors of India and making the Indian Ocean its own play ground.
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