ARE WE IN FOR A REPEAT OF 2004? MAY BE

Atal Behari Vajpayee was the prime minister and his close friend and co-founder of BJP Lal Krishna Advani was the president of the party in 2004.  The government under the ABV leadership had done tremendously well and the pet scheme of the Prime Minister was the linking of the four corners of the country with national high ways of international standards and criss-crossing the diagonal highways to the four corners.  He even quoted John F Kennedy to remind people that better roads are mandatory for any development to take place and India to take its rightful place in the comity of nations.  On seeing the electoral victories in Rajasthan, Chattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh and the wonderful results favoring the ruling party BJP, ABV thought the same could be replicated and called for early elections to the national parliament in 2004, albeit only by a few months in advance.  The results were disastrous for the ruling party and the congress was able to stitch a coalition and put up Sardar Man Mohan Singh as the prime minister who continued for the full term and in the next five years also.  Every one in the media was going to town with the "India Shining" campaign was the main culprit which alienated the entire rural population from the mainstream.  They even speculated that that was the reason for the BJP's defeat in the hustings to the national parliament.  The president of the party LKAdvani even went to the extent of admitting the over confidence with the performance of the government and economic indicators the main reason for the debacle.  Both ABV and LKA did not recover from this defeat, though LKA was spearheading the BJP in the next election in 2009.   There was not much truth in both the statements of the media and the president of the BJP.  The vote share overall in 2004 remained more or less the same as in 1999. As against 10.31 crores votes to Congress in 1999, the votes polled in 2004 were 10.34 crores and as against 8.66 crores votes to BJP in 1999 the votes in 2004 were 8.64 crores.  But the vast difference was in the number of seats won with these vote shares by both the parties in 1999 and 2004.  The congress won 114 seats in 1999 but could win 145 seats in 2004 whereas the BJP could win 182 seats in 1999 but could get only 138 seats in 2004.  The individual vote differential in each constituency made all the difference in winning and losing. The serious campaign by congress against the "India Shining" was one of the main reason for the defeat of BJP in 2004.

Now wind back to 2014 and the ensuing the political climate leading to 2019 elections for the national parliament.  BJP cornered 17.17 crores votes bagging 282 seats in the bargain.  Congress though got 10.69 crores votes could get only 44 seats.  The allies of BJP in the NDA also creditably did well and the BJP magnanimously allowed each alliance partner to have a ministerial berth though BJP alone had a majority to form the government. Now about a year to go before the next general elections to the national parliament, the BJP has wrested the north eastern states from the traditional communists and congress.  It has now more than 20 states under its belt.  This way it has ensured that in the ensuing elections to the upper chamber (Rajya Sabha - Chamber of States) it will conveniently send more people from its ranks.  The present combine of the Prime Minister Modi and the president of the party Amit Shah had been proving to be too much for the opposition parties to tackle.  The Modi-Shah juggernaut is rolling like the proverbial boulder down the slopes of the hill.  The concern is more on the final result to the general elections to the national parliament in the summer 2019.  The only wish and hope is that the Modi-Shah duo do not replicate the mistake of ABV-LKA duo of calling an early elections to the national parliament.

It is early days to say anything about the preparedness of the opposition parties. But the signals that are emanating from the division in the ruling dispensation and the coming together of the various parties opposed to BJP under a so called third front with the Telangana supremo K Chandrasekhara Rao as the leader are pointers to difficult times ahead for the BJP.  BJP has to definitely walk the talk to take all the alliance partners along.  In case, in the next elections, BJP does not get absolute majority like in 2014, the alliance partners will be baying for their pound of flesh to support any governmental formation with BJP in the lead. The signals in the media is that it is partial to the GOP all along and will continue to be so even if BJP is re-elected in 2019 or whenever the elections are called.  The confidence of the congress supremo despite handing over charge to her son, in saying that in 2019 BJP will face its waterloo, in the recently held Conclave in Mumbai is another pointer to what extent the media is willing to stake for the resurrection of the GOP.  

Though the BJP, technically may not be a party to the happenings in the Nirav Modi/ Gitanjali Gems fiasco, may even be able to pin squarely on the then finance minister, it cannot absolve itself the stain that may stick as the case opened up only now.  The narrative is something that the congress has been waiting for to happen to beat BJP for more than four years.  The vandalism and the arson reported in many parts of the country post BJP win in Tripura, a communist bastion for more than quarter century, seems orchestrated.  The economic indicators are favorable and the stock market despite the shocks of banking sector had been able to withstand and grow.   Overall the mood of the investors had been good.  But are these enough to transform the mood to votes in the election? It is a serious million dollar question.  Like in 2004, the BJP government is now highly over confident with their repeat victories in state elections or formation of state governments in many states by hook or crook, whether they got majority or not.  The Modi-Shah duo is also over confident that they can win election in any circumstances in any situation. The issues that are specific to any state may not be translating the votes when it comes to parliament elections and victory in number of seats.  The middle class has been grumbling that it had not been taken care of by the Modi government in the past four years and especially in the last budget which is the full budget before elections.  The farmers are agitating - there is a farmer march to Mumbai from Nashik. Though Fadnavis could easily call the bluff of Shiv Sena once, he may not be able to do so with farmers.  The farmers in Rajasthan, Chattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh are a discontented lot as the promised relief did not reach them in expected quantum.  The fringe elements taking law into their hands and dictating to the masses, and the central leadership being a mute spectator in most of the times is adding to the burden of the party. 

The pockets of GOP is very deep and their influence extends beyond borders. The increased skirmishes from across borders in western front and the frequent meeting of the political personnel of the enemy by the GOP personnel may have something to do with this to show to the electorate that despite tall promises Modi government could not do anything for the border state except adding to the misery. The eastern border also is not quite.  China had been flexing its muscles quite frequently in the borders and issuing statements of irritation on the visits of dignitaries to the border state in the east.  

The BJP came to power in 2014 on the promise of anti corruption and bringing back black money stashed abroad.  Though the Prime Minister never said in any speech that he would be able to put an amount of 15 lakhs in each Indian's pocket, the same had been repeatedly told viciously in goebellian way to make it true.  The people will see that he had failed miserably on both counts.  Neither the corruption in many states has come down nor he had been able to get the black money from abroad.  Though the corruption in many central government dealings had become almost nil since 2014, the same cannot be said of most of the states.  There is corruption in many small areas in states' level but significantly affecting common man in his daily chores. The many leaders of the opposition who are perceived to be highly corrupt while in office or otherwise are still free and not getting prosecuted or put behind bars by the present administration.  It is one thing to claim that an X is corrupt but it is totally another thing to prefer a case against the same X and prove it beyond doubt in a court of law.  Many people do not accept the second part of the above statement as they are getting carried away by the relentless media trials. 

The ever increasing agony of NPA of the Banks and the Banks not able to do anything to recover the same had been another factor which may have a serious implication to the present administration in hustings.  The economy had been reportedly doing better now but why the increase in NPA with the banks will be the question that will be asked by the opposition.  Even the Nirav Modi/ Mehul Choksi scam of the bank funds is being attributed to the present government though it is more a failure of the Banks internal supervisory mechanism and the policy changes brought in by the previous regime.  How many of the common man voters will be able to understand the logic that the slight tinkering with the gold import policy was the main culprit and the then finance minister was the main person behind this mega fraud by the Nirav Modi and Mehul Choksi duo? 

The president of the GOP instead of being a clueless person talking all about the vandalism of statues and other unimportant issues, starts talking about some of the major shortcomings of the present government, the BJP as the ruling party will have more to answer.  But from what is happening around, it appears he is more a beneficial opponent to BJP than some of its own rank.  But it is time the Modi-Shah combine have to get their acts together and make it count to get enough seats to form a government on its own like in 2014, failing which it will be a repeat of 2004 which may be detrimental to the majority population of the country.