ARE IN FOR A REPEAT OF 2004? MAY BE PART 2

One more set of by-elections have been done and dusted in which the ruling party in the center and the state of UP had lost both the crucial elections to the LS.  The constituency that was won by a comfortable majority of over 300,000 votes by the then BJP candidate and the present CM of the state of UP, Yogi Adityanath, has been lost to the combined SP-BSP candidate by a little over 20000 votes. In the 2014 elections to the LS, all the parties were fighting for all the seats independently and now the coming together of the major political parties in the state of UP against the ruling BJP has spelt troubles for the BJP.  In the neighboring state of Bihar the ruling JDU could win only one seat and the other seat had gone to its arch-rival RJD.   In the process the BJP had lost a comfortable majority of 282 seats in the Lok Sabha. Now the majority is tottering on a slim one or two seats, though the alliance partners have not yet withdrawn their support.

What could be the reason for the defeat in the prestigious by-poll in the constituency held by the present CM of UP for five consecutive terms as MP.  It appears that not only the coming together of the SP and BSP, it is the silent work of BSP workers for the combined candidate from door to door canvassing and no high profile meetings.  The BJP failed to read this sudden shift in the silent work of the BSP workers in favour of the common candidate.  It is of little importance that the congress candidate lost his deposit when the BJP candidate lost by a margin of little over 20000 votes.  Some of the BJP hardliners within the party will be rejoicing over this defeat that the Modi-Shah duo had been taught a lesson. The animosity to Modi-Shah duo can be gauged from the reaction of the congress spokesman. They are celebrating the loss of BJP more than analysing their candidate losing deposits in the election.

Let us look at another scenario painted by a news portal.  The Delhi duo of BJP had been silent on the outcome of the elections especially the Gorakhpur.  The loss of the seat by 20000+ votes which was won by Yogi Adityanath of BJP by over 300,000 votes in 2014 did not make the matters very disturbing for them.  The charisma of Yogi, his winnability had been put to test by the duo and proved that without the support of the duo, winning the election on ones' own in the states, be it an election to the state assembly or the national parliament is very difficult.  So, the detractors in the party had been told with an example of this by-election that the duos' prominence is the most important element in winning election and it is their charisma that lends authenticity to any win. If you buy this theory, then we are heading towards the days of Indra Gandhi when the elections were won by the congress only on her charisma with all the state leaders reduced to just puppets, which continue even today with only the so called high command of congress decide on every matter.

Whatever reason that the party may dish out for the defeat, the bottom line is that it is a wake-up call to the ruling party to set the house in order and work out a winning combination to avoid repeat of 2004.  The ex president of the Congress, Sonia Gandhi had already compared the present government's slogan "Ache Din Ayega" to the ABV's government's "India Shining". The media, except for a few, had been gloating over the loss of the ruling party in the by-elections.  It is evident from the way the media is portraying the news of election results and the choice of words to describe the same, that the media is overjoyed not on the loss of BJP but loss of Modi and Shah.  The coming together of the opposition parties is an anticipated move. The work done by the opposition party cadre in the election was the one that was not anticipated by the ruling party.  

If BJP is not making efforts to bring all its alliance partners and work towards a common goal, the result in the election to the national parliament may be an unwelcome outcome to BJP. At the present juncture to bring together all the alliance partners will be a herculean task for BJP and the question of allowances to be permitted at this time will be quite expensive for BJP as most of the alliance partners are feeling neglected by BJP in general and the duo in particular.  The actions of the government and the successive budgetary actions have resulted in the alliance partners feeling left out and their interests not safeguarded.  In these circumstances, BJP will have a tough time to go to the elections in 2019 without any serious efforts to stitch together a working coalition and a plan to topple the alliance of opposition parties.  It is time that Amit Shah has to prove that he is a real Chanakya to break the unity of opposition parties and also bring together like minded parties.  Bringing in a few persons who are seen as uncouth and users of rude and uncouth language in public from opposition parties is not going to be seen as a good tactical move by the general public.  In the recent move of admitting a person who had been denied ticket to Rajya Sabha by the party to which he belonged earlier does not bode well for BJP.  Such moves may backfire in the long run and will be a definite dent on the party's moral high ground.