CHINA AND ITS GAME PLAN

China had been trying to get a foot hold on the Arabian sea for a long time now. It had been wooing Pakistan only with that in mind and it succeeded by getting the development of the port of Gwadr in Pakistan in the Baluchistan Province.  There were reports of the previous government in Srilanka entering into agreement with China for the development of the Hampantota port and the Colombo port.  With the change in the government in the country, this agreement has come under review and most of the operative parts relating to use of these ports as port of call by the naval vessels had been rescinded.  Like wise the port on the estuary of river Irrawady in Myanmar and the port of Aceh in Indonesia had fallen by the wayside though China assiduously cultivated the regimes in both the countries. All these were done with the sole aim of encircling India in the sea from all sides. The Chinese Navy is bigger and has more submarines than what Indian Navy has. Though both the nations have only one air craft carrier currently operational, China is likely to get its second aircraft carrier soon. China is facing more problems in its own backyard in the South China Sea with Vietnam staring it without backing down on the exclusive economic zone and the US Navy sending its aircraft carrier there. 

In this backdrop, what is happening in Dok La is something all Indians have to worry about. The area of Dok La is a small piece of land like an ox tongue with India and Bhutan on three sides of the land mass. Bhutan traditionally had been having a treaty with India for its trade and trade routes through India and Indian ports and also for its security.  At the time of independence, the Himalayan nations of Nepal, Sikkim and Bhutan entered into individual bilateral treaties with India assuring them of easy trade through India, trading port facility, trade with India and for their security.  These agreements had been reviewed and renewed often in the past almost seventy years.  Though Tibet did not have such an agreement, it was thought that Tibet will be leaning more on India than any other nation.  When in 1959 China over ran Tibet absence of such an agreement was felt acutely by all especially the Tibetans as India could not send its troops to support the Tibetans.  Moreover, there was no proper access to the Tibetan plateau from the Indian side of the Himalayas except Nathu La and Dok La which were under the Sikkim and Bhutan regimes. 

China is seen to be cultivating the regimes in Nepal and Bhutan. The demise of monarchy in Nepal with corresponding rise of communism whose allegiance is to China sends all signals of worry to the Indian security establishment. The rise of the communist party in Nepal and the visit of the communist Prime Minister of Nepal to Beijing along with signing of trade agreement through Tibet are  points of utmost worry for the Indian planners.  There was already a rabble rousing in Nepal against the big brother attitude of India.  Despite the Indian governments' change in tack,  the Nepalese are still not ready to trust and go ahead the trusted path once more leaving their new found friend China fretting and fuming.  The treaty entered into with India, though had been renewed came up for lots of criticism and the communist party of Nepal called for lots of changes in the clauses in the treaty.  These changes that have been made will have long term impact on the relationship between Nepal and India.  Now with China entering Nepal with all goodies, soft loans for infrastructure projects, cooperation in various other areas etc.,  Nepal may get bowled over to switch sides to China dumping the long standing partner India.

In the midst of the stand off in Dok La, the Bhutanese Ambassador to India visited Chinese embassy in Delhi to participate in the celebrations of the PLA founding day. There is no consular relationship between Bhutan and China.  But the visit of the Bhutanese Ambassador to India to Chinese embassy to take part in the celebrations of Chinese Army has its own mark. What the Bhutanese Ambassador to India was doing at the Chinese Embassy celebrating their army?  Was it just a social call or does it have any deeper meaning attached to it?  

Both Nepal and Bhutan have to understand that traditionally China had not accepted the demarcation done by the British and has been claiming many areas as their own.  The running over of Tibet and making it as one of its own provinces is a pointer to this.  It also claims part of Ladakh and Uttarakhand as its own.  The entire state of Arunachal Pradesh it claims is a disputed territory.  With these in mind, both nations will do well to understand that China does not do anything to better the economic conditions of any other country except for its own benefit and also to massage its massive ego and hunger for expansion.  It sees India as its rival both economically and geographically strategically located who can cut off the supply lines in the sea.  Having seen this, it is trying to box in India from all sides. The attempt to encircle India in the sea through various agreements with India's neighbours for development of ports with facility to the Chinese Navy to dock its ships and submarines, had fizzled out though not totally owing to delayed action by the Indian government to renegotiate the same with the neighbours.  Now it is trying to get a foothold on the HImalayas on the Indian side with agreements with Nepal and wooing Bhutan.  Both these neighbours will do well to remember the fate of Tibet in 1959 which was gobbled up by China as its own territory.  With China not agreeing to the McMahon line across the HImalayas as the border between China and India and questioning it and advising the HImalayan nations on the unacceptability of British division of countries at the time of leaving the sub-continent, it sends some ominous signals to the Himalayan neighbours and to India as well.  The HImalayan neighbours will do well to remember that the present regime in China or its long standing policy think tank do not abrogate its own benefits to go the help of others. Tibet and Mangolia are pointers to this. If Nepal and Bhutan want to remain independent sovereign nations, their best bet is India and not China, India on its part to assuage the feelings of these nations and make some proactive work to cultivate them to India's side.