WAR WITH CHINA - A REALITY? OR POLITICAL GAME PLANS?

In the Trination area of Dok La between China, India and Bhutan, PLA had been trying to get a foot hold and claim it as its own.  Beijing had not been keeping quite in the past year or so.  First there was a revival of the CPEC which connects Tibet to Gwadar port in Baluchistan area of Pakistan that runs through the Aksai Chin area of J&K which is occupied by China.  Pakistan has been too eager and generous to gift away the area to China in the bargain to get more military hardware from them.  If recent reports are to be believed, there is a build-up of heavy artillery and manpower in the autonomous region of Tibet in the recent past and is continuing.  There is a war games in the higher regions on the Indian side. There was an exercise Malabar involving the navies of India, US and Japan which was frowned upon by China as it feared that it was aimed against it, though it was the 20^th edition of the same.  All these and the media reports worry a common man whether the war with China is imminent.  Let us examine the underlying scenario a little more clearly.

The political power shift in India in May 2014 has changed the scenario dramatically in the country.  This has been proved by the stand taken by the political establishment in respect of various issues vis-a-vis other nations be it friendly or otherwise.  The incessant drive by the Prime Minister himself in keeping the heads of other nations abreast of what is happening in the sub-continent is being followed by the MEA and the minister concerned.  This has been seen to bear rich dividends in respect of a few key issues like getting the stranded Indian citizens from war zones or getting the countries to agree to extend the required help for making the country self-sufficient in power generation.  The recent blocking of military reimbursement to the tune of USD 350 Mn to Pakistan is a pointer to the growing influence of India in the world arena.  Australia readily agreeing to provide fuel to the civil nuclear program for power generation and Japan not blocking it are feathers in the cap of the present administration in global diplomacy. Saudi Arabia keeping an air window open clear of hostilities in Yemen to allow the Indian planes of Indian Airforce  to evacuate the stranded Indians in Yemen is an understatement of the growing influence of the country.  June 21 being celebrated as International Yoga Day at the behest of the Indian Prime Minister is another milestone in International diplomacy.

In this context,  any misadventure by any of the neighbours is likely to have a world-wide ramifications.  Not only that, in a world with decreasing productivity and growth rate, the only economy that is doing better than global average is India.  Both China and Pakistan are aware of this clout that the country had been able to build up in the last three years since the present government took charge. Though China is not envious of the progress made in various spheres, as they are aware that it will take a decade or more to catch up with them, the same cannot be said of our western neighbour.  China despite having a two-decade lead over the country has slowed down a lot in the last five years and its growth is tending towards negative.  It has to combat with local ethnic religious minorities whose religious rights are being curbed in a military fashion by the state.  The Muslims or Uighur are denied their religious freedom to practice religion; the preachers are prohibited from teaching Koran; the traditional dress of Muslims like cap for males, hijab and burka for females are prohibited and many other such restrictions on them.   

China's human rights had been under a secret veil all along with no one the wiser about what is happening in the country.  The recent death of Liu Xiaobo the Nobel Laureate is an issue which highlights the very poor human rights conditions in China.  Tiananmen Square Massacre would not have gone out of the collective memory of the world population yet.  The call for democracy is gaining ground with recent standoff in Hong Kong where the Chinese premier had issued stern warning to the people of Hong Kong Autonomous Region.

In international relations also there are lots of strains between China and its other neighbours in east and south. With Japan, it has a problem with the island off Japan and in the South China Sea the problems with Vietnam is well known, with Vietnam already renaming part of the South China Sea.  The US also does not seem to help the matters much either;  It has already deployed an aircraft carrier in the SCS which has created ripples in the Chinese administration. The North Korean adventure of test firing its long rage ICBM and China's overt support to N Korea and tacit approval of the missile testing have not gone down well with the Trump administration. 

With so many issues facing it in the domestic and international arena, China will not do anything drastic to alter its relationship with India.  However, as a friendly ally of Pakistan, China may embark upon such needling of Indian positions on the border, as in the case of Dok La incident.  The LAC along the Arunachal Pradesh and in Tibet has not been recognised by successive regimes of China ever since the end of WW-2.  Therefore, taking a leaf out of its ally Pakistan, China may foment troubles along the LAC in the east or in the north of India near Tibet.   The Chinese media has been reminding India about the 1962 conflict forgetting for a moment that much water has flown in the Brahmaputra since then and the situation has changed dramatically in both the countries.   The media in both the countries are also flaming the passions of the people in both the countries. 

The recent, much discussed visit of the Chinese Ambassador to many places within the country meeting many political leaders who are aligned against the present party in power in Delhi, and the Prime Minister of Bhutan, with which country, China does not have any diplomatic relations, has raised lots of heckles in the political circles and very well covered in the media.   Various pronouncements by the political leaders of various hues and the Chinese media's report recently gives an indication to the political observers in the country as to what might have transpired in such meetings. The GOP and its allies are feeling frustrated with being out of power and not able to topple the elected government despite all their gimmicks so far.  This frustration has led to their shenanigans of meeting the Chinese Ambassador surreptitiously; denying it first; admitting it later and giving a clarification much later.  The stand taken by the ally in J&K, National Conference leader Dr. Farook Abdulla and his statements quoted in press are adding to one's suspicion.  The Chinese media goes out of the way to echo the statements of the GOP and its allies in India.  The rise of Hindu Nationalism is pushing the country to war screams the Chinese Official Media in the latest issue.   The recent visit of the Ambassador to meet the various political leaders and to Bhutan coupled with the latest headline in the official media of China gives one a very good measure of to what low the political parties are ready to stoop to get back at the present administration.  Earlier one of the senior leaders of the GOP went to the extent of asking for Pakistan's help in destabilising the present elected government and later he met with the anti-national forces' leaders in Srinagar.  The problems of guerrilla war with the infiltration of terrorists through the borders of J&K into the state had increased since then and the security forces' response had come into lots of criticism from the so-called intelligentsia in the country, who are more left leaning than the leftists themselves.  

The present meeting of the Ambassador with the political leaders of select parties including the vice president of GOP had seen a screaming headline in the official media of China.  This may have some more serious consequences.  The Dok La incident may or may not subside but the ramifications of the leaders tete-a tete with the Chinese Ambassador will have long term consequences affecting the security and integrity of the country.  The political leaders of the country irrespective of the hue of the party's colour and flavour will very well be advised to be on guard especially vis-a-vis China; The first PM of the country and the great grandfather of the present VP of the GOP was totally humiliated by the Chinese premier Zhou-En-Lai in 1962, with whom he had an excellent working agreement.  This humiliation is what lead to his early demise in 1963.  The VP of the GOP and other political leaders will do well to remember this and act in the best interest of the country instead of trying to topple the present party in power for a one-up-man ship in the political chess game.

In a country's development and aspirations to be a global player, what is required more is the understanding that domestic differences are swept aside and all the parties and leaders stand together to fight the enemy and present a unified face to the world. But unfortunately, in India since May 2014, this does not seem to be the case.  Each one is presenting his views to the world. Even the media channels with a global reach call the persons from across the border to get their views on the issues that are of relevant to the security of the country. Here the age-old wisdom comes to mind: Yatha Rajaa Thatha Prajaa. The political leaders irrespective of party affiliation have to come together and be seen as standing for India by any one from outside. Then the citizens of the country whatever be their chosen profession will stand together to be counted.