CHANGE OF SCENE IN THE NEIGHBOURHOOD AND ITS IMPLICATIONS TO INDIA
The Prime Minister of the neighbouring country Pakistan was embroiled in a corruption case in the Panama leaks and the join investigation team instituted by the authorities in the country found him guilty and accordingly the Supreme Court of the country had disqualified him to hold the post of PM and be an elected member of the Pakistan parliament. This has paved the way for turmoil in the political scenario in the country which has some fall outs on India also. It was reported that Nawaz Sahrif's brother Shabaz Sahrif is expected to take over once he is elected to the parliament. Until then there is likely an interim prime minister. How this is going to affect the already strained relations between the neighbours and how the same is going to have its impact on the standoff in Dok La between China and India?
The Punjab province has been under the control of the Sharifs for a long time and their influence has spread to almost all spheres of activities in the province leading to a lid over the activities of the non state actors like JuD JeM etc. The removal of Nawaz as the PM and his brother likely to take over as PM,the non state actors like JuD JeM etc.may have a field day and start fomenting troubles with the help of Deep state within the establishment. The military had been seeing the emergence of India as a threat to itself and is not ready to move on from its humiliating defeat in the 1965, 1971 and 1999 wars it fought with Indian Army. Having come to realise that in any conventional war with India, it will not have any edge, it has been engaging in Guerrilla warfare in the last many years; the terrorists who are little trained in the limited warfare are injected into the Indian territory through the long borders along the sates of J&K, Punjab, Rajasthan and Gujarat. The post 26/11 vigil along the borders of the states in Gujarat and Rajasthan and also in the seashores on the coasts of Gujarat and Maharasthra had lead to their limiting their approach to only J&K and Punjab. If it is in the name of freedom of the state in J&K and the infiltrators strike at will at security forces, their positions, civilians etc., it is economic terrorism in the border state of Punjab, where the drug menace is very rampant and is spreading its tentacles to other inland areas. The Sharifs with Nawaz as PM and Shabaz as the CM of Punjav province, were able to contain all these to an extent though the Deep state within the establishment was having a hold over anything to do with India. Now with the removal of Nawaz as PM and Shabaz likely to move to Islamabad, there is likely to be an increased attempts at both cross border infiltration of people and drugs.
The fact that the Pakistan government had entered into an economic co-operation agreement with China itself is only because of its military's desire to checkmate India in the global stage and keep India on tenter-hooks. Entering into CPEC with China, allowing China access to the Gwadr port in Baluchistan area in Arabian Sea, allowing China to build a road from Tibet to Gwadr port via the part of the J&K state occupied by Pakistan etc. are only in that direction. Even acceding of part of the occupied Kashmir to China (Aksai Chin) itself is in its grand plan of checkmating its traditional enemy. India may or may not have a Pak centric foreign policy but for Pak all its foreign policies are aimed with India in its center.
China and India cannot afford to have a war in the sense that it will affect the economies of both the countries effectively and limit their growing influence in the global stage. But with the change in scenario in the western front of India, China will try to create more tension in the north and eastern front for India. The Pakistan military had been traditionally looking for allies to beat India be it in a conventional war or guerrilla war. The present standoff between China & India in the trination area of Dok La has come as boon to it. The changed scenario in the political arena in the country will embolden the military to seek to further engage the enemy in more such conflicts that is being seen in the border state. The Pak military also will be emboldened with the situation obtaining in the eastern front for India. Nawaz Sharif though not a strong political leader, with his immense political tenure and wisdom was able to keep the military's ambitions in check. Still he had to give into the diktats of the military by engaging with China and entering into agreements with Chinese for the CPEC and gifting Chinese the Arabian sea port of Gwadr in the guise of development. All these had been done at the behest of the military. The price that Pakistan may be paying for such military co-operation with Chinese may be huge; be it in terms of its decision making economically or militarily or at the worst even its own sovereignty.
What is the impact of such changed scenario in the western front and the threat from China in the near term? The Pakistan military may be emboldened to increase its activities on the western front. China for its part in honouring its military and economic co-operation with Pakistan may aggravate the situation in the present stand-off area and also in Arunachal Pradesh area. China had been claiming that Arunachal Prdesh (originally NEFA) is part of its territory and had been contesting the McMohan line dividing the countries. Will the limited conflagration escalate to a full fledged war with China is a million dollar question. But given its domestic problems, sliding economy, pressure from US for containing its protege N Korea, growing problems with other nations in respect of South China Sea, China may not escalate the border tension to a full scale war with India. In any event, if there is a conflict between the Koreas or between Japan and N Korea US may jump to the rescue of S Korea and Japan which will force China to extend a helping hand to N Korea. In case of a direct conflict between Pakistan and India in the near future, will it come to the rescue of its ally or keep the border tension alive in the eastern and northern front for India or escalate to a full fledged war? It is not easy to postulate on this as the thinkers in the Chinese administration may not sacrifice its economic superiority for the sake of a nation whose religion the Chinese administration abhors and tries to suppress in its soil.
Moreover, in case of a full blown conflict between India and Pakistan, by staying neutral the Chinese may reap a lot more benefit as Pakistan post conflict may not remain a whole nation; in which case it would be easy and less costly for Chinese to pick the bones from such war and work for its own benefit .
The Punjab province has been under the control of the Sharifs for a long time and their influence has spread to almost all spheres of activities in the province leading to a lid over the activities of the non state actors like JuD JeM etc. The removal of Nawaz as the PM and his brother likely to take over as PM,the non state actors like JuD JeM etc.may have a field day and start fomenting troubles with the help of Deep state within the establishment. The military had been seeing the emergence of India as a threat to itself and is not ready to move on from its humiliating defeat in the 1965, 1971 and 1999 wars it fought with Indian Army. Having come to realise that in any conventional war with India, it will not have any edge, it has been engaging in Guerrilla warfare in the last many years; the terrorists who are little trained in the limited warfare are injected into the Indian territory through the long borders along the sates of J&K, Punjab, Rajasthan and Gujarat. The post 26/11 vigil along the borders of the states in Gujarat and Rajasthan and also in the seashores on the coasts of Gujarat and Maharasthra had lead to their limiting their approach to only J&K and Punjab. If it is in the name of freedom of the state in J&K and the infiltrators strike at will at security forces, their positions, civilians etc., it is economic terrorism in the border state of Punjab, where the drug menace is very rampant and is spreading its tentacles to other inland areas. The Sharifs with Nawaz as PM and Shabaz as the CM of Punjav province, were able to contain all these to an extent though the Deep state within the establishment was having a hold over anything to do with India. Now with the removal of Nawaz as PM and Shabaz likely to move to Islamabad, there is likely to be an increased attempts at both cross border infiltration of people and drugs.
The fact that the Pakistan government had entered into an economic co-operation agreement with China itself is only because of its military's desire to checkmate India in the global stage and keep India on tenter-hooks. Entering into CPEC with China, allowing China access to the Gwadr port in Baluchistan area in Arabian Sea, allowing China to build a road from Tibet to Gwadr port via the part of the J&K state occupied by Pakistan etc. are only in that direction. Even acceding of part of the occupied Kashmir to China (Aksai Chin) itself is in its grand plan of checkmating its traditional enemy. India may or may not have a Pak centric foreign policy but for Pak all its foreign policies are aimed with India in its center.
China and India cannot afford to have a war in the sense that it will affect the economies of both the countries effectively and limit their growing influence in the global stage. But with the change in scenario in the western front of India, China will try to create more tension in the north and eastern front for India. The Pakistan military had been traditionally looking for allies to beat India be it in a conventional war or guerrilla war. The present standoff between China & India in the trination area of Dok La has come as boon to it. The changed scenario in the political arena in the country will embolden the military to seek to further engage the enemy in more such conflicts that is being seen in the border state. The Pak military also will be emboldened with the situation obtaining in the eastern front for India. Nawaz Sharif though not a strong political leader, with his immense political tenure and wisdom was able to keep the military's ambitions in check. Still he had to give into the diktats of the military by engaging with China and entering into agreements with Chinese for the CPEC and gifting Chinese the Arabian sea port of Gwadr in the guise of development. All these had been done at the behest of the military. The price that Pakistan may be paying for such military co-operation with Chinese may be huge; be it in terms of its decision making economically or militarily or at the worst even its own sovereignty.
What is the impact of such changed scenario in the western front and the threat from China in the near term? The Pakistan military may be emboldened to increase its activities on the western front. China for its part in honouring its military and economic co-operation with Pakistan may aggravate the situation in the present stand-off area and also in Arunachal Pradesh area. China had been claiming that Arunachal Prdesh (originally NEFA) is part of its territory and had been contesting the McMohan line dividing the countries. Will the limited conflagration escalate to a full fledged war with China is a million dollar question. But given its domestic problems, sliding economy, pressure from US for containing its protege N Korea, growing problems with other nations in respect of South China Sea, China may not escalate the border tension to a full scale war with India. In any event, if there is a conflict between the Koreas or between Japan and N Korea US may jump to the rescue of S Korea and Japan which will force China to extend a helping hand to N Korea. In case of a direct conflict between Pakistan and India in the near future, will it come to the rescue of its ally or keep the border tension alive in the eastern and northern front for India or escalate to a full fledged war? It is not easy to postulate on this as the thinkers in the Chinese administration may not sacrifice its economic superiority for the sake of a nation whose religion the Chinese administration abhors and tries to suppress in its soil.
Moreover, in case of a full blown conflict between India and Pakistan, by staying neutral the Chinese may reap a lot more benefit as Pakistan post conflict may not remain a whole nation; in which case it would be easy and less costly for Chinese to pick the bones from such war and work for its own benefit .
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