HOWDY MODI AND ITS FALLOUT IN THE NEIGHBOURHOOD

The Indian Americans in the Texas state of USA arranged for a grand welcome to the prime minister of India Narendra Modi, who was visiting USA for attending the UN General Assembly.  This was arranged in the NRG stadium in Houston city on the eastern coast of USA. More than 30 senators and congressmen and women across the party spectrum in USA attended the grand gala event. Departing from protocol, the president of USA, President Trump joined the celebrations and addressed a crowd of over 55000 of Indian Americans. 

In the sidelines of the UN General Assembly meeting, Modi had many bi-lateral meeting with leaders from other countries.  The bi-lateral meeting with President Trump was the cynosure of all and attracted lot of eye-balls and foot falls from the media for the bonhomie exhibited by both the leaders in the Houston event.    President Trump while answering questions from the International and Indian media answered that Modi is competent to handle the Kashmir issue and went on to say that he united the country and is the father of India.  This raised the heckles of the opposition parties in India.  Apart from that his statement about Kashmir and ability of Modi to handle it did not go well with Pakistani leadership.

The prime minister Pakistan, Imran Khan said in an interview, that Pakistan cannot take on India in a conventional war and hope to win.  Though he was sabre-rattling his country's nuclear ability in an earlier interview in his country, the recent interview sends lots of signals about the intention of Pakistan and its ruling clique which is nothing but its own army.  The Pakistan politicians are just puppets in the hands of the army and its Generals. 

There are reports that in Balakot, where India a few months back destroyed the training camp of the LET and JEM and killing a few hundred cadres of these two outfits, the LET and JEM have rebuilt the camp and started their training work.  There are other reports that JEM and LET have assembled a huge terrorist force along the international border and along the LOC to strike at any point. There are also reports that with the active assistance of China, Pakistan is trying to smuggle arms into India using the Chinese made UAVs. There are many geological, political and economical reasons for the reason why China is actively supporting Pakistan in the international fora and against India.  Let us look at it separately.  As Pakistan has already admitted that it cannot win a conventional war with India, there appears to be lot going on within the country overlooking its dire economic status.

The harmful threat to the physical safety of the elected leaders of India is a real one even before the present situation that is arising out of President Trump's joint presser on the sidelines of UNGA.  The election of BJP with simple majority and Narendra Modi as prime minister in 2014 itself was total anathema to the Pakistan establishment.  Now in 2019 elections, the BJP romping home with a comfortable majority and Modi becoming the prime minister again is something that the Pakistani establishment is unable to digest. The global popularity of Modi that is increasing almost day by day in every event abroad, is seen in total disgust by the Pakistani establishment.  For Pakistani establishment, the actions of the Indian government under Modi, in the last three months since assuming office again after the last general election, have been like pouring the proverbial oil into the fire.  The removal of the triple talaq, abrogation of article 370 in the Indian constitution thereby removing the special status of the state of J&K etc. are not to the liking of the Pakistanis.  Added to that the statements by the home minister Amit Shah and the national security adviser Ajit Doval that the Pakistan Occupied Kashmir is the next target send shivers along the spine of the Pakistan leaders. 

In this backdrop, the Pakistan establishment (read army and ISI) will try to revive the LET and JEM, though with depleted support from the valley, to target Indian assets and leaders.  Imran Khan had sounded earlier,when the article 370 was abrogated, that there may be Pulwama like attacks.  Pakistan is just looking for some excuse to strike India using its famed guerrilla warfare using the non-state actors actively supported by its army and ISI.

India, being the second largest Muslim populated country in the world, is having its own home grown problems to tackle; with people from that community easily getting influenced to back the ISIS and Pakistan. Many students in some of the famous universities in India have become the supporters of leftist ideology and anti national activities. Some of these universities have become hotbed of growing such anti national activities in support of such terrorist attacks.  In a conventional war or a threat of war on the country such activities can be curbed and the perpetrators taken to task under the wartime laws.  However, during peace times, when the enemy is engaging in guerrilla warfare using non-state actors, there is a cacophony of noise supporting the enemy from these universities with even some of the faculty joining the chorus, nothing much can be done by the government.  There is an active support for such anti national activities and players from within and outside such universities.   Given these ground realities, the Indian security agencies will have to be on their toes to nip the terror activities in the bud.  There should be stronger vigil along the border not just along Pakistan but all around the country as Pakistani non-state actors are known for using soil of other countries to strike against India,  like the hijack of IAC's plane IC 814. 

Pakistan, for its part, may engage actively with China for ensuring that there is trouble brewing on the borders of India with China.  China, had been questioning the Macmohan Line, the border drawn by the British between India and China and claim a major part of the country including the state of Arunachal Pradesh as its own.  They keep flexing their muscles quite often by forcing the Indian establishment to take a guarded position along the eastern border. The investment by China into Pakistan in terms of money, man power and industrial input is something that China does not wish to see vapourised in the event of a nuclear clash between the two neighbours. The CPEC from the industrial towns of China to the port of Gwadr on the Arabian sea on the south western coast of Pakistan in the heartland of Balochistan and the port of Gwadr are big investments for China both strategically and commercially.  China would not want the investment to go waste in the event of any clash between the neighbours. Therefore, China will be jumping into the bandwagon to support Pakistan at any cost.  Pakistan, for its part, will maintain a stoic silence on the atrocities committed against Uighur Muslims in China, though it will be shedding crocodile tears against India on Kashmir and its population.  Given these frame works, it would be a big diplomatic gamble for the government to go forward with its further action in respect of J&K.  The intel and security apparatus of the country have to be geared to be at the maximum alert as there are already rumbles in the once peaceful southern tip of the country.   But, as one of the analysts very rightly said, it is very difficult to predict the next move of the prime minister and it is like playing chess with a grand master, let us wait for the next move of the government to see how things pan out in the next six months to a year.